Reported November 11, 2026, at 12:48 (UTC+8). Odaily said the U.S. October CPI reading came in above expectations. After the release, bitcoin briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began pricing a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in December.
HTX chief analyst Cloud argued that a 50-basis-point hike was not the high-probability case. He treated 25 basis points as the base case and described the decline as closer to a correction of pricing than to a change in the hiking path. The points below are his reasons, as reported, not a separate reading of the data.
Continuity of the inflation data. Cloud said the Fed weighs whether a reading persists. He said historical cases of a single month’s CPI jump changing the pace of rate increases are rare, so one above-expectation month was not enough, in his view, to overturn a gradual path.
Where the stickiness was coming from. He attributed this round of inflation stickiness mainly to lagged pass-through from tariffs and rents, which he expected to fade on its own. He also said employment was weakening at the margin, and that the committee had no reason to add aggressive tightening on top of the peak of that pass-through.
Credit and financial conditions. He said credit spreads had widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points and that financial conditions had already tightened in substance. On that basis, he argued another 50 basis points would amount to deliberately creating financial-stability risk. The report does not give the dates of that spread move.
Crypto conditions he cited with that macro view. These are separate observations from the same comment:
- Price: bitcoin’s post-release move to about $73,000.
- Derivatives and leverage: funding rates had turned negative, and perpetual-contract open interest had fallen by nearly 20% over one week. Cloud called the leverage clear-out relatively thorough and said room for a further deep short-term decline looked limited.
- Sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index had fallen into the deep-fear range. No index level was stated.
He did not treat an overshoot as an immediate rebound. Confirmation, he said, would require CPI to ease over the following two months. A trend decline would begin, on his scenario, only if inflation came in above expectations for two consecutive months and a 50-basis-point hike was delivered. He judged that combination relatively unlikely as of the comment.
The figures and probabilities above are Cloud’s assessment as carried by Odaily on November 11, 2026. They are not a live update, and the report does not convert any threshold into a buy or sell instruction.
Odaily notes that the content is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation of any investment product.
Original report: Odaily newsflash, November 11, 2026, 12:48 (UTC+8).
