Historical snapshot: BlockBeats published this report on November 12, 2026, at 14:37 Beijing time. The market readings below were reported as of around midday that day, not as live prices.
IPO terms and reported demand
Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that institutional interest in Anthropic’s IPO substantially exceeded the shares available. According to a Nasdaq notice, Anthropic expected to set its offer price on November 18, U.S. Eastern time, and begin trading under ANT on November 19.
The latest prospectus kept the proposed range at $70–$78 per share for 825 million shares, implying proceeds of about $57.75 billion–$64.35 billion. At the top of that range, and using the potential diluted share count disclosed in the prospectus, the fully diluted valuation was about $1.40 trillion. The Financial Times had previously reported that underwriters were considering an offering valuation of $1.5 trillion or more. A concurrent $26 billion private placement involving seven companies, including Google and Nvidia, was separate.
On-chain prices, volume and positioning
TradingBeats reported that three active Anthropic-linked contracts on Hyperliquid implied valuations near $1.8 trillion at midday on November 12:
- Trade.xyz’s xyz:ANT traded at $103.39, about 32.6% above the $78 offer-range ceiling, implying a fully diluted valuation of roughly $1.86 trillion.
- Entropy’s io:ANTH traded at 1,799.5 points, implying roughly $1.80 trillion.
- Paragon’s para:ANTH traded at $103.19, implying roughly $1.86 trillion.
Combined 24-hour volume across the three markets was about $101 million, down roughly 60% from approximately $250 million before midday the previous day. Notional open interest nevertheless rose from about $294 million to $304 million. Trade.xyz’s ANT had earlier fallen to $90.37 after the offer range was disclosed, then rebounded.
The largest short account identified in the report, 0xecc8, held about $42.82 million in Anthropic short positions across two markets, with approximately $1.6 million in unrealized gains. It added around $766,000 in Trade.xyz trading and at least $929,000 in Entropy shorts that day. The largest long account identified, 0xc0f7, held about $17.02 million in Entropy longs, with roughly $286,000 in unrealized gains. Its net position increase over 24 hours corresponded to about $8.15 million, including at least $2.75 million added in the early hours of November 12.
Prediction markets and contract conventions
At midday, Polymarket put the implied probability of a November 19 U.S. Eastern time listing at about 85.35%. The probability assigned to a final offering valuation of $1.5 trillion–$1.75 trillion reached 55.3%, up 26.55 percentage points in 24 hours; the probability of a first-day close above the offer price was 89%. A separate market put the probability of a first-day closing market capitalization above $1.5 trillion at 44.3%. That market used shares actually in circulation, rather than a fully diluted valuation, so the figures are not directly comparable.
At the time of the report, OKX planned a 17:00 Beijing-time adjustment to its Anthropic perpetual contract’s share-count basis, from 10 billion to approximately 13.116 billion shares. Under the announced adjustment, its quoted price would be divided by 1.311, while position quantity would be multiplied by 1.3116, leaving notional position value unchanged. A pre-adjustment quote of $137.37 would become about $104.73 on the new basis, close to Trade.xyz’s then-current $103.39. Binance had not yet adjusted its ANTHROPIC share-count basis.
For another point of comparison, Morningstar analyst Malik Ahmed Khan had recently estimated a base-case fair value of $92 per share—about 24% above the $74 midpoint of the proposed offer range, but below the roughly $103 on-chain per-share quotes. These prices, probabilities and valuation measures describe different markets and calculation bases; none establishes the eventual IPO price or first-day outcome.