As reported by Deep Tide TechFlow on November 11, 2026, at 22:47 (UTC+8), citing The Block, Derive options pricing put the probability of Bitcoin closing below $70,000 at Christmas at 31%, up from 15% the previous week. The priced probability of a close above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26% over the same period. These were options-implied readings, not forecasts of a certain outcome.
Derive founder and CEO Nick Forster said traders were shifting toward a defensive stance. He reported $418 million in Bitcoin options trading on the platform over the preceding week, up 37%. Put options accounted for 55% of trading premiums, versus 36% the week before.
Separately, K33 research head Vetle Lunde said Bitcoin perpetual-futures open interest stood at about 353,000 BTC on Tuesday, up 12% over 30 days, while Bitcoin’s price fell 10% over that period. In his assessment, a move lower could trigger substantial long liquidations, while a rebound could prompt short covering—either of which could amplify volatility.