Originally published November 11, 2026, at 22:43 (UTC+8). Bitcoin was trading around $73,500 on Wednesday after five consecutive weekly losses. Options and futures data pointed to a market with substantial positioning on both sides, though neither indicated which way the price would move.
Options traders reassess Christmas outcomes
Derive’s estimated chance of bitcoin finishing Christmas below $70,000 rose from 15% the previous Wednesday to 31%, according to founder and CEO Nick Forster. Over the same period, the estimated chance of a finish above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26%. Forster said puts—downside protection—cost more than equivalent calls.
Bitcoin options trading on Derive totaled $418 million the prior week, up 37%. Puts accounted for 55% of premiums traded, versus 36% the week before, Forster said. He also described a wallet that spent about $14,000 to protect 300 BTC against a fall below $60,000 by November 27; he said the position could pay up to $3 million if bitcoin fell below $50,000.
Leverage could amplify moves in either direction
K33 reported that bitcoin perpetual-futures open interest stood near 353,000 BTC on Tuesday—a level exceeded on only 1.2% of trading days over the preceding two years. Open interest had risen 12% over 30 days while bitcoin lost 10%, according to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde. He said a decline could trigger long liquidations, while a recovery could prompt short covering, calling the market “ripe for a squeeze.” That describes exposure to moves in either direction, not a forecast of one.
The broader backdrop was mixed. Bitcoin had fallen below $74,000 on Tuesday after the release of October U.S. consumer price data, which showed a 0.4% monthly increase against expectations of 0.3%. More than $1 billion in crypto long positions had been liquidated on Monday as bitcoin fell below its 50-week moving average. Friday’s U.S. producer price index release was next on the economic calendar.
K33 put bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq at 0.75, in the 99th percentile of readings since 2020. In its review of 16 previous strong Nasdaq rebounds from corrections, bitcoin rose in eight of the nine rebounds that continued, with a median 20-day gain of 2.9%. It fell in all seven failed rebounds, with a median 20-day loss of 21%. Those historical comparisons do not establish what will happen next.
Fund flows showed another source of pressure: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had $1.28 billion in net outflows the prior week and a further $296 million on Monday and Tuesday, according to data compiled by The Block. The funds had also turned negative for the year. K33 reported withdrawals of 31,652 BTC from global bitcoin ETPs over the preceding seven trading days.
Source: theblock.co (originally published 2026-11-11 22:43 UTC+8)
