A prominent researcher at Standard & Poor’s Bank has expressed confidence that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the first round of Ethereum spot traded funds (ETFs) this week, predicting that Ethereum’s market cap will reach $8,000.
It is worth noting that expectations for the SEC to approve an Ethereum ETF have begun to increase recently. This is due to important developments ahead of the upcoming application deadline.
For example, the SEC decision on the VanEck Ethereum spot ETF will be announced in two days. Additionally, the application deadline for Ark Invest will follow on Friday, May 24.
Meanwhile, U.S. regulators have reportedly asked exchanges to update their 19b-4 filings. The SEC made the request on Monday, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Prominent market commentators interpreted the SEC's request for updated filings as a positive sign that approval was imminent. This is reflected in the views of Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart. Specifically, Balchunas and Seyffart revised their probability forecast from a previously pessimistic 25% to a significant 75%.
Ethereum to hit $8,000 target this year after approval
In a recent interview, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Savings Bank, said the approval will be announced this week. He said he was certain of 80% to 90% of SEC approval.
Based on this, Kendrick predicts that ETF approval could trigger demand for 2.39 to 9.15 million Ethereum tokens, equivalent to an estimated $15 billion to $45 billion in the first year after approval.
This inflow is expected to be in line with Standard & Poor’s forecast for the market impact of a Bitcoin ETF. Kendrick’s analysis suggests that Ethereum is likely to maintain its price ratio to Bitcoin, perhaps holding at its current level of 5.4% for the remainder of 2024.
According to researchers at Standard Savings Bank, this would mean that if Bitcoin hits $150,000 by the end of 2024, Ethereum’s price would reach $8,000. Ethereum is currently trading at $3,771 and a target of $8,000 would mean an additional 1,12% increase in price.
At the same time, $8,000 is not the highest target for Ethereum in this round of Standard Savings Bank. Previously, the bank predicted that Ethereum would rise to $14,000 by the end of 2025. This outlook is consistent with its estimated bitcoin price of $200,000 next year.
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