Analysts predict Bitcoin will repeat 2020 171 halving pattern in Q4

As Bitcoin progresses towards 2024, market analysts are closely watching its performance in relation to the recent April fork event.

Judging from historical patterns of previous forks, there is a possibility of a surge in the fourth quarter, with price action in 2024 bearing significant similarities to the past few years.

Analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that the current trend is similar to those seen in 2016 and 2020, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is once again driving big gains.

Comparing 2024 to past fork years

Martinez’s analysis compared Bitcoin’s performance in 2016, 2020, and 2024, with distinct but related trends in each year. In 2016, Bitcoin’s cumulative return index remained stable with slight fluctuations, and then began to rise significantly around day 275. By the end of the fourth quarter, Bitcoin had gained approximately 61%, with a return index of just over 2.

The 2020 cycle, represented by the pink line on Martinez’s chart, shows a more aggressive growth trajectory. Bitcoin’s cumulative returns have increased steadily throughout the year, but with minor corrections along the way.

The most exciting move occurred in the fourth quarter, with Bitcoin surging 171% and the return index exceeding 4 at the end of the year.

In 2024, the pattern appears to be very similar to 2020, especially the year-end portion. The purple line on the Martinez chart shows a similar growth trend at the beginning of the year, accompanied by a period of sideways movement before an uptrend began near day 250.

While the full impact of 2024 remains to be seen, similarities with previous fork years suggest that a rally could occur in the fourth quarter, echoing historical performance.

Is Bitcoin's dominance shifting?

Amid this anticipated Bitcoin breakout, Martinez observed a shift in market dynamics that could pave the way for an altcoin season. His analysis in another article suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance may have peaked, suggesting a possible drop to around 47%.

Martinez’s observation chimes with his overall view of the altcoin market, which appears poised to surpass $1 trillion. In another post, he highlighted the symmetrical triangle pattern that has formed in the altcoin market cap, suggesting that a breakout could be on the horizon as the pattern approaches a convergence point.

This setup, characterized by lower highs and higher lows, points to an upcoming market move that could further confirm the start of the altcoin season.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article may contain the personal opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.