Day 285 of 2024 Top analyst warns Bitcoin bull run must come within 14 days to avoid longest semi-annual sideways trend

Bitcoin is facing its longest sideways move in the fork years, with more than 30 weeks without a new all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin’s price action during the 2024 fork cycle has attracted attention due to its continued sideways trend. Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, noted that if a bull run does not occur within the next 14 days, Bitcoin will experience its longest period of sideways movement in the fork year.

Historically, previous fork cycles have usually shown a strong upward trend at this time, but the 2024 cycle is different from the historical trend. The unusual performance raises questions about whether the expected bull run will take place or continue to be delayed.

Compared with previous fork cycles

According to Young Ju’s chart, Bitcoin’s return index remained relatively stable during the 2024 fork cycle, hovering below 1.5 times the cumulative return.

Compared with previous cycles, the growth rate is significantly slower and no significant upward trend has emerged. At this stage in previous fork years, Bitcoin has typically shown stronger price performance.

For example, the 2020 fork cycle saw Bitcoin’s return multiple approach 4x at this point in the year, indicating the beginning of a major bull run. However, the current cycle has shown only limited volatility, raising concerns about whether Bitcoin will follow its historical upward trajectory.

Impact of Sideways Trend

The news follows veteran trader Peter Brandt’s analysis of the impact of Bitcoin’s recent efforts to break its all-time high (ATH). According to Brandt, Bitcoin has not set a new ATH in 30 weeks, a pattern that is often a precursor to a market decline.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin could face a major correction that could lead to a breakdown of 75%. Bitcoin’s current price is close to its 8-week simple moving average of $60,998, reflecting the uncertainty in the market.

Bitcoin’s long-term strength against gold

Despite Bitcoin’s short-term challenges, its strong long-term performance compared to gold is still noteworthy. Brandt’s analysis of the BTC/GLD ratio highlights Bitcoin’s continued outperformance of gold in recent years.

However, Bitcoin is approaching resistance at 32 ounces of gold, a critical threshold that could determine its future trajectory. If Bitcoin can break through this resistance, its value could surge, with a potential target of over 100 ounces per Bitcoin.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article may reflect the personal opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to perform thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.