Bernstein says Bitcoin will hit $200,000 regardless of US election outcome

Analysts at Bernstein have released a new Bitcoin price outlook, predicting that the asset will trade at $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election.

Gautam Chhugani, senior crypto-asset analyst at Bernstein, made his latest assertion on the eve of the U.S. election, insisting that Tuesday’s election results will not affect Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. In a statement to clients, he stressed that Bitcoin’s first rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025 is almost already planned.

The analyst based his price prediction on several key factors, arguing that “the Bitcoin genie is out of the bottle and changing the course is difficult.” Chhugani said that the growth of U.S. debt, poor monetary policy decisions, and growing demand from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds will push Bitcoin to its $200,000 price target.

Notably, the brokerage firm made a similar Bitcoin price prediction late last month, arguing that the six-figure target was conservative. However, the latest comments suggest that the factors driving the upcoming price increase are so powerful that the US election cannot change it.

Bernstein expects short-term volatility
Chhugani noted that global markets, including crypto markets, will experience short-term price action based on tomorrow’s election results. The market expert reiterated that a victory by Republican candidate Donald Trump would push Bitcoin past its current all-time high of around $74,000 and trade between $80,000 and $90,000.

However, Chhugani reversed his previous stance on a victory for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, predicting a softer market reaction. He raised his expectations from $30,000 to $40,000 to $50,000 before a recovery in late 2025.

Meanwhile, Polymarket odds between Trump and Harris converged over the weekend. The former president's 33% lead over Harris has been lost, with the odds falling by 15%, from 57.9% to 42.1%.

Notably, leading corrections are associated with Bitcoin downtrends. The seminal cryptocurrency fell below $68,000 yesterday before recovering to $69,051. However, it is still down 6.1% from last week’s high of $73,544.

Is Bitcoin hitting $200,000 a certainty?
It’s worth noting that Bernstein isn’t the first to predict that Bitcoin will rise to $200,000 regardless of tomorrow’s election results. It is worth noting that the well-known multinational bank Standard Chartered Bank has a similar view.

The bank’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, expects Bitcoin’s push to $200,000 to have nothing to do with the U.S. election. He also cited demand growth and interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve System as catalysts for the expected rise.

Other industry leaders also expect Bitcoin to trade at this price point, with some predicting it will reach at least six figures by the end of next year. Steve Lubka, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, predicts Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by 2025.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is the only crypto asset expected to hit new highs regardless of the outcome of the U.S. election. Chhugani noted that Ethereum and Solana’s price performance depends on regulatory changes from the SEC, which could be decided in a vote on Nov. 5.

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