Bitcoin Shows Mixed Signals Ahead of US Election Between Whale Accumulation and Long-Term Holder Selling

Bitcoin is once again at a critical juncture, offering both hopeful and cautious signals ahead of the U.S. election.

Recalling a surge last week, Bitcoin jumped to $73,600 on Oct. 29, marking a seven-month high, before quickly correcting back below $68,000 by Nov. 3. Despite the decline, major market indicators point to continued interest and potential volatility.

Bitcoin Market Remains Healthy Amid Whale Buying and Long-Term Holder (LTH) Selling

In derivatives markets, there are signs of stabilization. Traders are holding their positions and avoiding excessive leverage, suggesting that Bitcoin is on a healthier, more sustainable trajectory than past speculative bubbles.

- advertise-

A notable indicator is that the 25% delta skew remains stable. This number usually rises sharply to above 7% during times of market panic, indicating that options traders are not currently anticipating a major price drop.

Meanwhile, the activities of large Bitcoin whales continue to shape market sentiment. According to CryptoQuant data, whale holdings have risen, from 3.889 million BTC on October 20 to 3.915 million BTC currently. This growth demonstrates confidence even amid recent market volatility.

Bitcoin Whale Holdings | CryptoQuant

While whales were accumulating, long term holders (LTH) took a different approach, showing a clear increase in selling. According to data from CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun, LTH sold approximately 177,617 BTC in the past week.

- advertise-

This behavior is consistent with historical trends, with LTH tending to sell as prices rise, potentially suggesting that these holders view current price levels as an opportunity to realize profits.

This selling trend echoes patterns observed during past bull runs, including 2018, 2021, and 2024, where long-term holders allocated more Bitcoin during price increases.

Macro factors

Bitcoin’s recent price action has also closely followed the trend of the S&P 500, indicating that macro factors are influencing its price. The upcoming US elections and a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve – expected to be 0.25% – could be a catalyst for further market shifts.

Lower interest rates by the Federal Reserve could boost Bitcoin’s appeal, as lower interest rates typically lead to a search for alternative stores of value, driving investment in assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Shows Mixed Signals as US Election Approaches

As anticipation grows, some market experts predict that Bitcoin could reach new highs after the U.S. election. Analyst Moustache noted on X that Bitcoin has historically seen large increases after past elections, such as in 2012, 2016, and 2020, speculating that 2024 could follow a similar trend.

However, as The Crypto Basic reported earlier today, chartered market technician Aksel Kibar highlighted a possible bearish pattern in Bitcoin’s chart known as a gravestone cross.

If confirmed, this pattern could foreshadow a further retracement. Whether this pattern materializes depends on how Bitcoin ends the current week. A weak close would confirm the doji, but a strong finish could invalidate it, opening the door for further gains.

Despite recent price volatility, some analysts believe Bitcoin is building a solid base around the $69,000 level. They believe that this correction is part of a healthy market cycle and could serve as the basis for a larger breakout.

The idea is that this consolidation phase could prepare Bitcoin for a move beyond its all-time high if buying resumes. BTC is currently priced at $68,913 at the time of publishing, attempting to retake and maintain the $69,000 territory ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. presidential election.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article may include the personal opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of The Crypto Basic. Readers should conduct thorough research before making any investment decision. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.