比特幣面臨資金利率下降風險，可能跌至90,000美元的分析

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Bitcoin faces $90K downside risk, funding rate declines, analysis
Bitcoin faces $90K downside risk, funding rate declines, analysis
January 8, 2025

Bitcoin needs more blood

Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are experiencing a sharp decline, with BTC falling to a low of $$94,550 today.
This comes after Bitcoin briefly returned to the six-figure price range earlier this month, reaching $$102,720 yesterday. The dramatic bearish turn prompted analysts to explore on-chain metrics to identify potential triggers.
Shayan, a certified author at the CryptoQuant analytics platform, pointed to the decline in Bitcoin funding rates in derivatives markets as a key factor.
The funding rate reflects the demand for Bitcoin derivatives and plays an important role in maintaining price trends. Strong rallies are usually accompanied by an increase in funding rates, indicating strong demand.
However, Shayan noted that the early stages of Bitcoin’s recent price rally lacked significant funding rate support, with funding rates rising sharply only in the middle of the rally. The delay suggests that market commitment is lower than expected, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to a price correction.
Market hesitation and capital outflow
This was particularly evident during the rally that led to Bitcoin’s all-time high in December 2024.
For example, data from Coinglass shows that as of December 5, 2024, the weighted funding rate for Bitcoin’s open interest was 0.0906%. At the time, Bitcoin was trading at $102K.
However, in the following days, the rate fell despite the continued rise in Bitcoin prices. Specifically, when Bitcoin encountered a rejection at $108,300 on December 17, 2024, the rate dropped sharply.
The drop shows a weakening commitment among traders, with many losing confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its upward momentum.

Bitcoin Funding Rate Chart Coinglass
In his comments, Shayan affirmed that the observed decline in funding rates not only shows capital outflows from the derivatives market but also shows the lack of forces supporting the bullish momentum.
Basically, leveraged traders showed very little interest in maintaining their positions when Bitcoin was trading in the six-digit range because they were worried about a major correction. This translates into broader hesitation among market participants, further depressing Bitcoin prices.
Yesterday, when Bitcoin was trading above $102K, the funding rate dropped to 0.0044% from 0.0113% the day before.
Bitcoin faces deeper correction
Current trends point to a potential test of lower prices. Shayan believes that if Bitcoin fails to maintain support above $90K, it may face greater selling pressure.
In addition, he said, traders could lose more confidence. He predicts a deeper correction and a possible revisit to lower Fibonacci levels or psychological price thresholds.
However, if funding rates recover and strong buying activity returns to the market, Bitcoin could stabilize and continue to rise, resuming its bull path.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $$95,060, showing a threat of further decline.