Brandt表示比特幣在本十年間達到20萬美元的可能性不大：原因如下

front page
Crypto News
market
Brandt says Bitcoin is unlikely to hit $200,000 by the end of the decade: Here’s why
Brandt says Bitcoin is unlikely to hit $200,000 by the end of the decade: Here’s why
February 14, 2025

Peter Brandt and Bitcoin

Bitcoin is gaining momentum, but veteran trader Peter Brandt remains skeptical about its prospects.
His recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin may not be able to surpass $200,000 before the end of the decade. He highlighted technical barriers that could prevent Bitcoin from reaching this lofty valuation, but emphasized that this was just a thought, not a trade, confirming his uncertainty.
At the time of Brandt’s report, Bitcoin was trading at $96,789, up slightly by $0.171tpt3t on the day but down by $2.851tpt3t over the past week.
Despite the current recovery efforts, Brandt believes that Bitcoin must maintain strong upward momentum to overcome key resistance levels. It’s worth noting that without this momentum, predictions for Bitcoin to exceed $200,000 may be overly optimistic.
Bitcoin’s Critical Condition
The market veteran’s chart highlights Bitcoin’s price action since 2012. Chart data shows that since then, Bitcoin has followed a red long-term ascending channel with two key trend lines acting as resistance and support.
Furthermore, the asset has experienced multiple parabolic surges, each of which always ended with a sharp correction before the momentum faded and the next cycle began.

Bitcoin 1W Chart | Peter Brandt
Currently, Bitcoin appears to be forming another parabolic rise similar to past cycles. However, the chart suggests caution as Bitcoin approaches upper channel resistance, which has historically typically foreshadowed declines.
Bitcoin is currently facing resistance near a key level. The 8-week moving average is $97,633, a threshold that Bitcoin has struggled to break. If the pair continues trading below this level, the bearish pressure is likely to intensify.
Furthermore, the Average True Range (ATR) was recorded at 8,988, showing high volatility. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 40.75, confirming that Bitcoin is in a strong trend, although it does not specify the direction of that move.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 20-period total trading volume is 245,663, a figure that appears low compared to previous breakout phases. For reference, a significant surge in volume is necessary to sustain a long-term uptrend.
Why Brandt thinks it may be hard for Bitcoin to reach $200,000
Brandt believes that unless Bitcoin breaks through the upper boundary of its parabolic trajectory, it could remain below $200,000 until 2030.
He suggested that Bitcoin needs to achieve significant acceleration above the resistance level to sustain its ascent. Otherwise, historical trends show the possibility of extended consolidation or even a downward move.
Bitcoin is currently approaching a critical resistance level between $100,000 and $120,000. If it fails to break out of this range, the price might pull back.
Meanwhile, on the downside, there is a strong support zone between $60,000 and $70,000 that could act as a buffer in case of a correction. In a more extreme scenario, Bitcoin could revisit the lower boundary of its long-term channel, ranging from $40,000 to $50,000.