Glassnode 確定若 BTC 跌破 96,000 美元，下一個主要支撐位為何

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Glassnode Identifies Bitcoin’s Next Major Support Level If It Loses 96K
Glassnode Identifies Bitcoin’s Next Major Support Level If It Loses 96K
February 17, 2025

Bitcoin. Image courtesy of Crypto Basic. The logos shown in the images are owned by the respective crypto projects.

Market analysis firm Glassnode has identified Bitcoin’s next major support level if bulls lose the current zone. The report states that Bitcoin is still trading in a critical range, with the price hovering around $96,788. Specifically, the analytical resource highlighted that if Bitcoin loses support at 96K, the next major support could be much lower as resilience is limited.

Bitcoin support is at $80.1K and $71K
In the report, Glassnode mentioned Bitcoin’s Adjusted MVRV Z-Score, a metric that helps traders assess price support areas.

# Bitcoin’s Adjusted MVRV Z-Score can be used to approximate key price support areas. So far, the price has remained around the mean of $96.3K. If prices fall further, the next major line of defense for bulls could be found at the -1.5σ level ($80.1K): https://t.co/jwSxMmYW4ipic.twitter.com/fXLOrWjhw1
— glassnode (@glassnode) February 17, 2025

The firm noted that Bitcoin has remained near its mean of $96.3K, marking an important threshold for market stability. According to Glassnode, if the price drops further, bulls may find the next major support at the -1.5 standard deviation (σ) level $80.1K. For context, the last time Bitcoin entered the $80,000 region was in mid-November 2024, when the market generally rallied under Donald Trump. Since the asset surpassed this area, it has remained above it, showing resilience as it pushes towards $89,164 in January 2025. However, Glassnode analysts believe that if the current $96K support level fails, Bitcoin may return to the $80K level again. Additionally, the company mentioned short-term holders (STHs). Specifically, the cost basis for this group is $92.2K, which is an important level to maintain the current upward trend.

Bitcoin Short-Term On-Chain Cost Benchmark | Glassnode
In addition, the ±1σ range between $71K and $131K represents a typical price boundary. With Bitcoin still trading within this range, bulls have maintained some control, but continued price volatility is testing their resilience. In addition, according to Glassnode’s analysis, URPD volume configuration shows that there is a liquidity gap below the current support level. There are fewer transactions within this zone, which suggests that the price moving into this area may accelerate the downward pressure. The -1σ level of the STH cost basis is located at $71K, just above this liquidity gap, making it a key area if the Bitcoin price falls further.

Entity Adjustment URPD | Glassnode
Bitcoin is stuck between a wall of demand and supply
Meanwhile, market analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that Bitcoin is currently stuck between a strong demand and supply zone. The demand wall was located between $94,660 and $97,540, with market participants purchasing approximately 1.43 million BTC in this area.

# Bitcoin is trapped between critical levels, with a demand wall of 1.43 million #BTC between $94,660 and $97,540 and a supply wall of 1.16 million $BTC between $97,650 and $99,470. A breakout in either direction could set the market trend! pic.twitter.com/zHZpDuFLBx
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 15, 2025

At the same time, he confirmed that there is a supply wall between $97,650 and $99,470 accounting for about 1.16 million BTC. According to Martinez, a breakout in either direction could set the market trend. In a previous analysis, Martinez highlighted the $97,530 resistance level, which Bitcoin has broken through and is looking to turn into support. Below $92,110, he said support was weak, with a notable gap from $90K to $70K. This also confirms Glassnode’s warning that failure to sustain current levels could lead to a deeper price correction.

Demand remains strong
Despite the range-bound price action, on-chain analyst Darkfost noted that demand for Bitcoin remains strong. He pointed to the exchange inflow/outflow ratio on the 30-day moving average (DMA) as a bullish indicator. When the ratio is below 1, it indicates that more Bitcoin is leaving exchanges than entering, which is often a sign of accumulation. While Bitcoin fluctuates within the $90K to $105K range, the continued outflows show strong demand.

Bitcoin Exchange Inflows | Outflows | CryptoQuant
It’s worth noting that such trends have historically often foreshadowed short-term price increases. However, Darkfost warned that some of these outflows could be from regular exchange transfers to institutional or custodial wallets.