US market conditions affect Bitcoin

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U.S. market conditions affect Bitcoin price, but long-term outlook remains strong: expert
U.S. market conditions affect Bitcoin price, but long-term outlook remains strong: expert
March 4, 2025


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A report from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests that the Bitcoin market is slowing down, driven primarily by changing sentiment in the United States. In a recent X post, Ju noted that Bitcoin’s bull cycle remains intact despite important on-chain indicators remaining neutral. However, without changes in U.S. market conditions, price momentum may appear sluggish.

US Market Sentiment and Bitcoin Price Action
Ju’s analysis suggests that recent Bitcoin price volatility is due to whale activity on major U.S. exchange Coinbase. His post referenced the Coinbase Premium Index, which monitors the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other international exchanges.

The index is often used to gauge institutional interest and U.S. investor sentiment. According to Ju, the sentiment in the market today is markedly different than at the end of 2024, when enthusiasm and capital inflows were much stronger.

Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong
Despite the slowdown, Ju remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. He stressed that despite the lack of significant on-chain activity today, Bitcoin still has solid fundamentals. One factor supporting this view is the continued expansion of Bitcoin mining operations and the introduction of new mining equipment.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which could be a determining factor in where it moves next. After recently hitting the $82,000 level again, experts are looking at the Fibonacci level of 61.8% as a key support area.

If Bitcoin fails to hold above this level, it could be forced to move lower towards $70,000.

On the other hand, a break above the short-term resistance trendline would allow Bitcoin to move back to $92,000 and towards a potential rebound.

Ju also noted that a premature end to this cycle would be an undesirable situation for multiple stakeholders such as old whales, mining companies, traditional finance (TradFi) players, and even Donald Trump. Sentiment suggests that despite the current bearish performance, a rally to new highs is still possible.

Market Outlook: Will Bitcoin Regain Strength?
Ultimately, whether the bull cycle continues will crucially depend on Bitcoin’s ability to hold important support levels during its latest decline.

Triggers that could renew investor confidence in the U.S. market include macroeconomic changes and regulatory developments, which many traders are also closely watching.

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